Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news over the past week. In this edition we are covering the Gen-Z revolution in Nepal, Israel’s surprise strike on Qatar, the Russian drone attack in Poland, China-Philippine skirmishes in the South China Sea, and Morocco’s growing momentum over the Moroccan Sahara . So, let’s get to it.
Whirlwind changes in Nepal: In a matter of 24 hours, the KP Oli government in Nepal was ousted after protests led by Nepali youngsters rocked the Himalayan nation. Last week Monday, Gen-Z protesters had hit the streets of Nepal’s cities to protest against a ban on 26 social media platforms and general corruption in the country. However, things turned violent after a group of protesters tried to breach the country’s Parliament, leading to firing by law enforcement -- at least 50 people would go on to die in the protests. That in turn inflamed passions and the protesters returned the next day to target public institutions, high security buildings like the President’s House, the country’s Supreme Court and the secretariat, while even the houses of ministers were vandalised and set on fire. Former Nepal PM Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife were assaulted. Maoist leader Prachanda’s house was attacked. Offices of the three main political parties – Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Maoist-Centre – were torched.
This was an inferno of rage against the political elite in Nepal. After all, Nepalese citizens have long felt the crushing burden of corruption and nepotism, while seeing their leaders and their families live a life of luxury. The firing by security forces during the Gen-Z protests was the last straw. That said, it is also clear that the largely peaceful Gen-Z protesters on Day 1 were different from those who took to vandalism and arson on Day 2. Therefore, it is quite possible that the protests had been infiltrated by other groups with their own grievances and hitlists. And it is the latter that led the violent orgy on Day 2.
With Oli gone, the race began for his successor. President Ram Chandra Paudel said that a solution had to be found from within the Constitution and that the Oli cabinet remained alive in the interim. As per Nepal’s Constitution if the PM resigns, all efforts are to be made to elect a new PM and government from within the existing Parliament. But that clearly wasn’t acceptable to the Gen-Z groups. Eventually, a particular Gen-Z group proposed former Nepal chief justice Sushila Karki for the post of interim PM. This was accepted by President Paudel and Karki was sworn in as the first female PM of Nepal. However, many contend this move to be unconstitutional. For, Nepal’s Constitution also states that no unelected person can be the PM. This then leads to another question: Is the Gen-Z movement willing to scrap the 2015 Constitution that was the result of years of painstaking work and compromises? If so, what statute will replace it and who is going to author it?
Karki’s main mandate is to hold elections in Nepal in six months. But will that be sufficient to meet the aspirations of Gen-Z or bring about systemic change? All these questions swirl as Nepal faces its biggest crisis in decades.
Israel attacks Qatar: In a surprising move, Israel for the first time targeted Hamas negotiators in Qatar. Doha has been a long-time mediator between Israel and Hamas, and hosted Hamas’s political office – which was downgraded last year. It is also a US ally with the largest American military base in the Middle East. None of that, apparently, could deter Israel’s strike. In fact, the attack – which also killed at least one Qatari citizen – appeared to also take Trump by surprise. He wasn’t happy about it. Plus, the Hamas negotiators were in Doha to consider a US-backed ceasefire proposal with respect to the conflict in Gaza. It later appeared that the top Hamas negotiators escaped the strike and only lower-level functionaries were killed.
Nonetheless, the attack was a clear violation of Qatari sovereignty. In response, Doha hosted an Arab-Islamic summit to formulate a joint position to Israel’s attack. That may or may not lead to anything meaningful. But the key issue here is Israel, with this attack, has clearly shown that it is not interested in negotiating a ceasefire or getting the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza released. For, if it were serious about negotiations, why would it attack Hamas negotiators who were working on a deal that could release the hostages? Does Tel Aviv not care about the hostages? And if it isn’t serious about negotiations, why is it pretending to engage in parleys? To buy time and prolong the conflict? Israel’s positions are not making sense. Netanyahu, it seems, wants Israel to be in a perpetual state of war.
Russian drones in Poland: Ukraine had been warning about this for long and it finally happened. Last week a large group of Russian drones – reportedly 19 – entered Poland and crashed into some civilian infrastructure there. True, this isn’t the first time Russian drones have entered Poland. But this time the number of drones and their flight trajectory were threatening enough to mobilise Polish and Nato air forces. In fact, Nato shot down at least four of these Russian drones, marking the first time that the Western military bloc has fired shots in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russia is clearly testing Nato’s response here. This is just like Russia’s multidimensional hybrid tactics in the Nato Baltic states. Each time, Moscow is testing to see how Nato would react as a group to small military indiscretions. Plus, by repeatedly undertaking such manoeuvres, Moscow is not just challenging Nato but also trying to normalise these provocations. In other words, Russia is slowly pushing Nato under the cover of its nuclear umbrella. It is counting on the fact that Nato will continue to stomach these military pinpricks and not risk all-out war with Russia.
This is precisely what Russia is counting on in Ukraine as well. For the past three years, Nato and EU have approached the Russia-Ukraine war from a distance. But now Russia is directly threatening Nato members, not just on its eastern flank, but in the heart of the bloc. The only appropriate response should be for Nato to create a joint air defence shield over Ukraine and stop the Russian drones there. This will not only protect Ukraine but also prevent Russian drones from entering Nato airspace. But will Nato step up?
China-Philippines skirmishes at sea: Chinese and Filippino coastguards engaged in non-lethal skirmishes in the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Chinese coastguard vessels reportedly used water cannons on Philippine vessels. The latter were accused by Beijing of ramming into Chinese ships. Manila, however, accused the Chinese of undertaking aggressive measures against its vessels while it was resupplying more than 35 Filipino fishing boats at the shoal.
It’s to be noted that the Scarborough Shoal lies within The Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. But China claims almost all of the South China Sea through its so-called Nine Dash Line cartographic innovation. But a Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in 2016 had rejected China’s claim. Yet, Beijing has proceeded to aggressively impose its maritime hegemony over the region and disregard competing claimants. In fact, it has reclaimed and militarised many of the features in the South China Sea to assert its dominance. Just before the recent skirmish with The Philippines, China had approved plans to unilaterally turn the Scarborough Shoal into a national nature reserve.
In short, China is resorting to its usual bullying tactics. Inch-by-inch China expands its claims unless it is stopped by an opposing force. The Philippines has been confronting such Chinese grey-zone tactics over the last few years. It’s an example that should inspire other countries to similarly stand up to China’s bullying ways.
Morocco gets one over South Africa : South Africa appears to be upset over its former president Jacob Zuma’s visit to Morocco in July where he endorsed Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Moroccan Sahara. It will be recalled that Zuma, who broke with the ruling South African Party ANC’s position on the Moroccan Sahara, undertook a historic trip to Rabat that was organised with request for assistance from the South African embassy in Rabat. But now the South African government is distancing itself from Zuma’s visit and is issuing a demarche to the Moroccan embassy in South Africa for the “inappropriate use” of the South African flag during Zuma’s visit.
The truth is South Africa is unable to stomach the growing momentum in favour of recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara, both internationally and within Africa. The ANC-led South African government still sticks to its old support for the Polisario Front separatist group that continues its nefarious activities in the Moroccan Sahara. However, Zuma, who has floated his own political party, has broken away from this position and acknowledges Morocco’s historic and legal position on the Sahara. And Morocco’s Autonomy Plan is the only realistic solution to this baggage of history. US and France now both support Rabat’s position. UK too appears to be providing qualified support. South Africa, therefore, must shed its old vision of the Moroccan Sahara issue. If Morocco and South Africa can come together, it will be hugely transformational for Africa.
Whirlwind changes in Nepal: In a matter of 24 hours, the KP Oli government in Nepal was ousted after protests led by Nepali youngsters rocked the Himalayan nation. Last week Monday, Gen-Z protesters had hit the streets of Nepal’s cities to protest against a ban on 26 social media platforms and general corruption in the country. However, things turned violent after a group of protesters tried to breach the country’s Parliament, leading to firing by law enforcement -- at least 50 people would go on to die in the protests. That in turn inflamed passions and the protesters returned the next day to target public institutions, high security buildings like the President’s House, the country’s Supreme Court and the secretariat, while even the houses of ministers were vandalised and set on fire. Former Nepal PM Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife were assaulted. Maoist leader Prachanda’s house was attacked. Offices of the three main political parties – Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Maoist-Centre – were torched.
This was an inferno of rage against the political elite in Nepal. After all, Nepalese citizens have long felt the crushing burden of corruption and nepotism, while seeing their leaders and their families live a life of luxury. The firing by security forces during the Gen-Z protests was the last straw. That said, it is also clear that the largely peaceful Gen-Z protesters on Day 1 were different from those who took to vandalism and arson on Day 2. Therefore, it is quite possible that the protests had been infiltrated by other groups with their own grievances and hitlists. And it is the latter that led the violent orgy on Day 2.
With Oli gone, the race began for his successor. President Ram Chandra Paudel said that a solution had to be found from within the Constitution and that the Oli cabinet remained alive in the interim. As per Nepal’s Constitution if the PM resigns, all efforts are to be made to elect a new PM and government from within the existing Parliament. But that clearly wasn’t acceptable to the Gen-Z groups. Eventually, a particular Gen-Z group proposed former Nepal chief justice Sushila Karki for the post of interim PM. This was accepted by President Paudel and Karki was sworn in as the first female PM of Nepal. However, many contend this move to be unconstitutional. For, Nepal’s Constitution also states that no unelected person can be the PM. This then leads to another question: Is the Gen-Z movement willing to scrap the 2015 Constitution that was the result of years of painstaking work and compromises? If so, what statute will replace it and who is going to author it?
Karki’s main mandate is to hold elections in Nepal in six months. But will that be sufficient to meet the aspirations of Gen-Z or bring about systemic change? All these questions swirl as Nepal faces its biggest crisis in decades.
Israel attacks Qatar: In a surprising move, Israel for the first time targeted Hamas negotiators in Qatar. Doha has been a long-time mediator between Israel and Hamas, and hosted Hamas’s political office – which was downgraded last year. It is also a US ally with the largest American military base in the Middle East. None of that, apparently, could deter Israel’s strike. In fact, the attack – which also killed at least one Qatari citizen – appeared to also take Trump by surprise. He wasn’t happy about it. Plus, the Hamas negotiators were in Doha to consider a US-backed ceasefire proposal with respect to the conflict in Gaza. It later appeared that the top Hamas negotiators escaped the strike and only lower-level functionaries were killed.
Nonetheless, the attack was a clear violation of Qatari sovereignty. In response, Doha hosted an Arab-Islamic summit to formulate a joint position to Israel’s attack. That may or may not lead to anything meaningful. But the key issue here is Israel, with this attack, has clearly shown that it is not interested in negotiating a ceasefire or getting the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza released. For, if it were serious about negotiations, why would it attack Hamas negotiators who were working on a deal that could release the hostages? Does Tel Aviv not care about the hostages? And if it isn’t serious about negotiations, why is it pretending to engage in parleys? To buy time and prolong the conflict? Israel’s positions are not making sense. Netanyahu, it seems, wants Israel to be in a perpetual state of war.
Russian drones in Poland: Ukraine had been warning about this for long and it finally happened. Last week a large group of Russian drones – reportedly 19 – entered Poland and crashed into some civilian infrastructure there. True, this isn’t the first time Russian drones have entered Poland. But this time the number of drones and their flight trajectory were threatening enough to mobilise Polish and Nato air forces. In fact, Nato shot down at least four of these Russian drones, marking the first time that the Western military bloc has fired shots in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russia is clearly testing Nato’s response here. This is just like Russia’s multidimensional hybrid tactics in the Nato Baltic states. Each time, Moscow is testing to see how Nato would react as a group to small military indiscretions. Plus, by repeatedly undertaking such manoeuvres, Moscow is not just challenging Nato but also trying to normalise these provocations. In other words, Russia is slowly pushing Nato under the cover of its nuclear umbrella. It is counting on the fact that Nato will continue to stomach these military pinpricks and not risk all-out war with Russia.
This is precisely what Russia is counting on in Ukraine as well. For the past three years, Nato and EU have approached the Russia-Ukraine war from a distance. But now Russia is directly threatening Nato members, not just on its eastern flank, but in the heart of the bloc. The only appropriate response should be for Nato to create a joint air defence shield over Ukraine and stop the Russian drones there. This will not only protect Ukraine but also prevent Russian drones from entering Nato airspace. But will Nato step up?
China-Philippines skirmishes at sea: Chinese and Filippino coastguards engaged in non-lethal skirmishes in the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Chinese coastguard vessels reportedly used water cannons on Philippine vessels. The latter were accused by Beijing of ramming into Chinese ships. Manila, however, accused the Chinese of undertaking aggressive measures against its vessels while it was resupplying more than 35 Filipino fishing boats at the shoal.
It’s to be noted that the Scarborough Shoal lies within The Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. But China claims almost all of the South China Sea through its so-called Nine Dash Line cartographic innovation. But a Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in 2016 had rejected China’s claim. Yet, Beijing has proceeded to aggressively impose its maritime hegemony over the region and disregard competing claimants. In fact, it has reclaimed and militarised many of the features in the South China Sea to assert its dominance. Just before the recent skirmish with The Philippines, China had approved plans to unilaterally turn the Scarborough Shoal into a national nature reserve.
In short, China is resorting to its usual bullying tactics. Inch-by-inch China expands its claims unless it is stopped by an opposing force. The Philippines has been confronting such Chinese grey-zone tactics over the last few years. It’s an example that should inspire other countries to similarly stand up to China’s bullying ways.
Morocco gets one over South Africa : South Africa appears to be upset over its former president Jacob Zuma’s visit to Morocco in July where he endorsed Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Moroccan Sahara. It will be recalled that Zuma, who broke with the ruling South African Party ANC’s position on the Moroccan Sahara, undertook a historic trip to Rabat that was organised with request for assistance from the South African embassy in Rabat. But now the South African government is distancing itself from Zuma’s visit and is issuing a demarche to the Moroccan embassy in South Africa for the “inappropriate use” of the South African flag during Zuma’s visit.
The truth is South Africa is unable to stomach the growing momentum in favour of recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara, both internationally and within Africa. The ANC-led South African government still sticks to its old support for the Polisario Front separatist group that continues its nefarious activities in the Moroccan Sahara. However, Zuma, who has floated his own political party, has broken away from this position and acknowledges Morocco’s historic and legal position on the Sahara. And Morocco’s Autonomy Plan is the only realistic solution to this baggage of history. US and France now both support Rabat’s position. UK too appears to be providing qualified support. South Africa, therefore, must shed its old vision of the Moroccan Sahara issue. If Morocco and South Africa can come together, it will be hugely transformational for Africa.
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