GenZs, regime change and clashes - from Nepal to Bangladesh, what's good in India's neighbourhood?

Clashes in the east, terrorism on the west, and fall of regimes has kept India’s neighbourhood on edge. From Kathmandu to Kabul, a string of political crises, violent protests, and armed conflicts are reshaping South Asia’s landscape, testing governments and spilling unrest onto the streets.

In Nepal, Gen Z-led protests toppled the KP Oli-regime after the violent demonstrations over social media ban killed 19. The unrest follows years of political churn since the monarchy was abolished in 2008, with 13 governments taking office in less than two decades. India, sharing an open border with Nepal, has stepped up vigilance as the turmoil deepens.

Elsewhere, Bangladesh faces a leadership crisis after Sheikh Hasina fled amid nationwide protests, Myanmar’s civil war has intensified, Pakistan continues to struggle with political and economic instability, Sri Lanka is still reeling from its financial collapse, and Afghanistan remains under Taliban rule with a dire humanitarian situation. Together, the crises underscore the volatility in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

Also read: PM Modi expresses concern over Nepal unrest; appeals for ‘peace and prosperity’ amid protests

Nepal

Nepal witnessed a regime fall after Gen Z-led protests swept through Kathmandu and other cities, with young demonstrators demanding action against corruption, unemployment, and p oli tical dysfunction. The unrest has turned violent, with protesters storming the homes of senior leaders, torching the residence of Nepal PM KP Oli, who then tendered his resignations amid pressure.


After initially imposing a controversial social media ban, the cabinet lifted it under pressure, but Oli dismissed the protests as an “unpleasant situation,” blaming “ambiguity” in Gen Z’s thinking. Even as he assured an investigation into the violence and relief for victims’ families, Oli has resisted calls to step down, with his party vowing that he will not resign.

The upheaval comes against the backdrop of lingering disillusionment with Nepal’s political system. Since the monarchy’s abolition in 2008, the country has cycled through 13 governments, fueling frustrations that corruption and instability remain entrenched. While pro-monarchy protests had earlier signaled nostalgia for King Gyanendra Shah, the Gen Z movement reflects a new generation’s anger at leaders they see as incapable of delivering jobs, accountability, or hope. India, watching closely, has tightened vigilance along the border as the unrest deepens.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh was thrown into chaos on August 5, 2024, when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina abruptly fled to India amid weeks of escalating protests that had already claimed more than 300 lives. What began as a student-led movement against a government jobs quota quickly ballooned into nationwide demonstrations fueled by anger over corruption, economic mismanagement, and a heavy-handed crackdown on dissent. As protesters defied a nationwide curfew and marched toward her residence, Hasina resigned and left the country.

In the vacuum, the military stepped in. Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced that a temporary government would be formed to restore order, while President Mohammed Shahabuddin dissolved parliament to make way for an interim administration. Adding to the drama, longtime opposition leader and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia—once Hasina’s fiercest rival—was released from jail on health grounds after serving part of a 17-year corruption sentence.

The future remains uncertain. While the Awami League under Hasina was seen as relatively close to India, Zia and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have historically leaned toward Pakistan and China, with an openly anti-India stance dating back to the party’s founder, Ziaur Rahman . For New Delhi, the unfolding power shift in Dhaka is more than just Bangladesh’s internal crisis, it could reshape the strategic balance in South Asia. The country is set to go to polls in February 2026.

Myanmar

Myanmar’s civil war, raging since the 2021 military coup, is pushing the country of 55 million to the brink. Resistance fighters in remote regions have scored surprising victories against the ruling junta in recent months, raising the possibility of its collapse. But for ordinary people, the conflict has been devastating, thousands killed, nearly 3 million displaced, and an economy in freefall. Inflation is soaring, healthcare has collapsed, and the UN warns of rising malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis.

The war is also reshaping Myanmar’s reputation. Once seen as an emerging democracy, it is now viewed as a hub for drugs, money laundering, and online scams. The military’s brutality has turned the conflict into a human rights disaster, while its reliance on foreign weapons, over $1 billion in arms sales since the coup, much from Russia, underscores the global dimensions of the war.

For the region, the stakes are high. China fears for its infrastructure projects, while India, worried about instability along its northeast border, has begun deporting Myanmar refugees. Thailand is bracing for an influx of more than 40,000 asylum seekers, and Bangladesh sees little hope of repatriating the Rohingya. Even the United States is stepping in, offering nonlethal support to resistance groups. Yet despite its regional and international implications, Myanmar’s conflict remains one of the world’s most overlooked wars.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka was rocked by unprecedented mass protests in July 2022, forcing President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and flee the country. The demonstrations were driven by public fury over the government’s mishandling of an economy already battered by the Covid-19 pandemic, rising global fuel prices, ballooning debt to China, and chronic mismanagement of state resources. What began as peaceful rallies quickly escalated into a massive movement, culminating in the storming of government buildings.

The crisis left everyday life in disarray. Sri Lankans faced crippling shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, while inflation soared to record levels. Power cuts and fuel rationing imposed by the government only deepened the anger, turning economic hardship into political revolt. The protests marked a watershed moment in Sri Lanka’s modern history, with ordinary citizens directly challenging entrenched political elites.

Colombo even turned to international lenders for emergency assistance and rolled out austerity measures to stabilize the economy.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s politics have been in upheaval since the ousting of Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022 through a no-confidence vote. Once backed by the powerful military, Khan fell out of favor after trying to assert control over key appointments and foreign policy. The military’s withdrawal of support proved decisive, paving the way for his removal and a cascade of legal troubles. His arrest in August 2023 on corruption and incitement charges triggered widespread protests, with his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), facing severe repression ever since.

The political crisis has unfolded alongside deepening economic woes. Pakistan is battling soaring inflation, crippling energy shortages, a plunging currency, and a mounting debt burden, much of it tied to loans from China under the Belt and Road Initiative. Investor confidence has been shaken, and the Shehbaz Sharif government has had little choice but to seek lifelines from the IMF. While the bailout offers short-term relief, the strict reforms demanded in return—such as subsidy cuts and tax hikes—have fueled public anger.

Together, the political instability and economic fragility have left Pakistan in a precarious position, especially in the wake of Pahalgam terror attack that worsened its relationship with India, with the two countries launching military operations against one another.

With a restless public, an embattled opposition, and the military still wielding significant influence, the path forward looks uncertain. For India and the wider region, the turbulence across the border adds another layer of unpredictability to an already volatile neighborhood.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan has been in a state of turmoil ever since the Taliban’s lightning-fast offensive in 2021. What began on May 1, as US troops started pulling out, quickly snowballed into a full takeover. Within just a few months, provincial capitals fell one after another, and by August 15, Kabul had collapsed with barely any resistance. President Ashraf Ghani fled, and the Taliban declared the return of the Islamic Emirate, catching even US intelligence agencies off guard with the sheer speed of their advance.

Since then, the country has been grappling with a deepening humanitarian crisis. The economy has shrunk dramatically, by almost 30% since the Taliban came back to power, and nearly two-thirds of Afghans now depend on aid. Of those, 17 million face acute hunger, making day-to-day survival a struggle for millions of families. The collapse of foreign funding, paired with global sanctions and isolation, has left ordinary Afghans carrying the brunt of the crisis.

Tensions with Pakistan have only worsened the situation. Islamabad has accused Kabul of allowing militant groups to shelter on Afghan soil, blaming them for deadly cross-border attacks. The Taliban, in turn, has rejected the claims, but friction has strained relations between the two neighbors. Despite this, trade ties have largely remained functional, highlighting the complicated interdependence that persists between the two sides.

Adding to the turmoil is the Taliban’s rigid governance. Their strict enforcement of Islamic law has virtually erased women from public life, banning them from higher education and most jobs. These restrictions have not only drawn global criticism but also worsened Afghanistan’s already fragile economy by sidelining half of its workforce. While India has not formally recognized the Taliban regime, it continues to engage cautiously, sometimes even receiving unexpected gestures, like Kabul’s condemnation of the recent Pahalgam terror attack.