NEW DELHI: India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season , August and September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
In an online press briefing on Thursday, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that most regions, barring the Northeast and adjoining eastern parts of the country, are likely to witness normal rainfall in August, while September is projected to record above-normal rainfall.
India has already received above-average rainfall in the first half of the season (June–July), with some states like Himachal Pradesh witnessing flash floods.
“Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the long period average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season,” Mohapatra said.
He added that rainfall will be normal to above normal across most regions, except parts of Northeast, eastern India, central India, and southwestern peninsular India, where a shortfall is likely.
Although rainfall activity may remain subdued over the next two weeks, it does not meet the criteria for a 'break monsoon phase', the IMD clarified. A break phase refers to a temporary monsoon pause when the rain-bearing trough shifts closer to the Himalayan foothills.
Between June 1 and July 31, the country recorded 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm, marking a 6% surplus. There were 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest in five years, Mohapatra noted.
He also highlighted that Northeast India has seen below-normal rainfall for the fifth consecutive year, in line with a 30-year declining trend in monsoon activity in the region.
The strong July rains were attributed to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions and six low-pressure systems, of which four intensified into depressions. “Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days,” said the IMD.
The IMD also reported that ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and likely to continue through October, with a possibility of weak La Niña conditions post-monsoon.
In May, the weather office had predicted monsoon rainfall at 106% of the long-period average of 87 cm for the June–September period. Rainfall between 96% and 104% is considered normal.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s economy, particularly the agriculture sector, which sustains nearly 42% of the population and contributes over 18% to the GDP. It also plays a key role in replenishing water reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.
In an online press briefing on Thursday, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that most regions, barring the Northeast and adjoining eastern parts of the country, are likely to witness normal rainfall in August, while September is projected to record above-normal rainfall.
India has already received above-average rainfall in the first half of the season (June–July), with some states like Himachal Pradesh witnessing flash floods.
“Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the long period average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season,” Mohapatra said.
He added that rainfall will be normal to above normal across most regions, except parts of Northeast, eastern India, central India, and southwestern peninsular India, where a shortfall is likely.
Although rainfall activity may remain subdued over the next two weeks, it does not meet the criteria for a 'break monsoon phase', the IMD clarified. A break phase refers to a temporary monsoon pause when the rain-bearing trough shifts closer to the Himalayan foothills.
Between June 1 and July 31, the country recorded 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm, marking a 6% surplus. There were 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest in five years, Mohapatra noted.
He also highlighted that Northeast India has seen below-normal rainfall for the fifth consecutive year, in line with a 30-year declining trend in monsoon activity in the region.
The strong July rains were attributed to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions and six low-pressure systems, of which four intensified into depressions. “Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days,” said the IMD.
The IMD also reported that ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and likely to continue through October, with a possibility of weak La Niña conditions post-monsoon.
In May, the weather office had predicted monsoon rainfall at 106% of the long-period average of 87 cm for the June–September period. Rainfall between 96% and 104% is considered normal.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s economy, particularly the agriculture sector, which sustains nearly 42% of the population and contributes over 18% to the GDP. It also plays a key role in replenishing water reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.
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